The Two Jacks - 176 - When the Centre Cannot Hold: Le Pen, the AfD and a Fraying West

Deepseek, bitches! Version 4 - but Pro bro. Pretty crap tbh. Title sucks.

HKJ says some completely wrong things about an Edinburgh study on bots. I am assured this will be clarified next episode. No, the extent of Russian bot activity is not limited to 5,000 tweets. He read the study wrong. Stay tuned next week for more!

Episode Summary

This week Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack open with the rioting that has swept across France — from Bordeaux and Paris to Marseille — unpacking how a student protest over school closures metastasised into a broader movement against the French state. They trace its genesis, flag the racial and religious dimension signalled by Palestinian, Moroccan and Algerian flags, and examine what it could mean for Marine Le Pen ahead of a likely presidential tilt.

The pair then turn home, covering the Victorian election, the federal public servant pay rise, and a wider argument about productivity, growth and "late capitalism." From there they range across a resurgent far-right in Germany, Russian interference in Brexit, New Zealand's finely balanced election, and Indonesia's looming MSCI downgrade — a story they note is barely being reported in Australia despite its significance to our region.

Sport rounds out the show with Test cricket's uncertain future, the Wallabies' woes, the Rugby League World Cup, and a nod to the AFLW.

Timestamped Highlights

(Timestamps adjusted to include the 25-second theme music intro.)

• 00:25 — Jack the Insider welcomes listeners to Episode 176 and introduces Hong Kong Jack.
• 00:55 — Opening on the riots in Paris and Bordeaux, with footage of burning vehicles and looted stores, including the Apple Store and Louis Vuitton in Bordeaux.
• 01:52 — Genesis of the protests: the closure of roughly 400 schools and the involvement of students aged 15 to 18, later joined by university students and the "Yellow Vest" anarchist activists.
• 03:46 — Hong Kong Jack notes the Palestinian, Moroccan and Algerian flags, raising the racial and religious element.
• 04:25 — Le Pen's opportunism: supporting the police while milking grievances; a potential "stop Le Pen" coalition falling apart.
• 11:26 — Kevin Rudd's "democracy experiment" warning and the fragility of democracy worldwide.
• 12:33 — The "late capitalism" argument: the first generation with less wealth than its parents.
• 14:12 — Ben Carroll and the Victorian "red shirts" scandal; a month out from the Victorian election.
• 16:00 — The Albanese government's pay offer of at least 9% over three years to 200,000 federal public servants, below union demands for 15%.
• 16:35 — Matthias Cormann's productivity argument, and whether pay without productivity just raises prices.
• 21:54 — One Nation and the SMH's $275 billion revenue cost of slashing immigration; polling on Andy Burnham.
• 28:02 — The AfD's rise in Germany; the centre-right CDU shedding votes to the far-right, and the AfD leader's appeasement line on Russia and Ukraine.
• 32:25 — New Zealand's election and the kingmaker role of centrist party TOP (The Opportunities Party).
• 35:34 — Russian interference in Brexit: the ISC Russia report, bot farms, and the debate over whether interference changed the outcome.
• 41:00 — Why Australia's elections are harder to manipulate: the AEC, compulsory voting and compulsory preferences.
• 49:54 — Indonesia's MSCI downgrade — market manipulation and "ghost owners" — and the $3–5 billion in immediate outflows forecast by JP Morgan and UBS.
• 55:30 — How little Indonesian news reaches Australia, despite it being our most important geopolitical partner.
• 57:12 — The impact of One Nation on the federal election and the Nationals' survival in regional Australia.
• 01:09:00 — Test cricket's future and the financial struggles of West Indies cricket.
• 01:19:45 — The Wallabies' second-half capitulation to the All Blacks and the "Giteau Law" eligibility question.
• 01:21:45 — The Rugby League World Cup's group structure and whether Australia is too dominant.
• 01:25:00 — AFLW: Geelong over the Eagles, and a high-skill Giants–Hawthorn clash.
• 01:27:00 — Sign-off and DMs open on X.

Episode Titles (for Australian audiences)

1. Riots in France, Red Shirts at Home: The Two Jacks Read the Week
2. From Bordeaux to the Beehive: France Burns While Oz Votes
3. When the Centre Cannot Hold: Le Pen, the AfD and a Fraying West
4. $275 Billion Questions: One Nation, Pay Rises and the Cost of Discontent
5. Indonesia's Quiet Crisis and the Wallabies' Loud One

Social Media Posts

X / Twitter France is burning, and the next generation will be poorer than their parents. @JacktheInsider and Hong Kong Jack read the week — and why it all points back to your hip pocket. New Two Jacks out now.

Facebook Salut from Hong Kong — this week we're tracking the riots tearing through France and what they mean for Le Pen, the AfD's surge in Germany, and a Victorian election that's anyone's guess. Plus: why Indonesia's market meltdown barely made our papers, the Wallabies' second-half shocker, and whether Test cricket survives. Grab a cuppa and catch up on Episode 176.

Instagram Bordeaux is burning. Democracy's fragile. And somehow the Wallabies got worse in the second half. Episode 176 is live — link in bio.

LinkedIn This week's episode grapples with political economy as much as politics: Matthias Cormann's productivity thesis, the pay-without-productivity trap, capital flight from Indonesia, and the generational wealth gap feeding protest across the West. A serious conversation for anyone tracking the region.

Threads Riots in Paris. A pay rise debate at home. Indonesia quietly tumbling off the MSCI index. And the Wallabies — again. The Two Jacks have thoughts on all of it.