EP: 154 No Food, No Water in 2027 Pt. 2

Global food inflation is expected to accelerate to roughly 5% in early 2027, driven by a compounding mix of extreme weather, geopolitical conflict, and fertilizer shortages. Severe empty-shelf shortages are expected to primarily affect vulnerable, import-dependent emerging markets rather than the United States.

Major Drivers for 2027

• The Super El Niño: A historically strong El Niño climate pattern is underway, bringing severe heat, drought, and flooding that threaten global crop yields. [1, 2, 3]

• Fertilizer and Energy Disruptions: Ongoing geopolitical conflict and shipping constraints around the Council on Foreign Relations Analysis choke point in the Strait of Hormuz have severely restricted the international trade of fertilizers and natural gas inputs. [1, 2]

• Climateflation: Extreme heatwaves in Europe and other key agricultural regions have already erased millions of tonnes of grain from baseline forecasts, shifting macroeconomic pressures directly onto harvest yields

Regional Impacts

• Global South & Emerging Markets: Regions in South Asia, East Africa, and parts of Latin America face acute food insecurity risks and heightened vulnerability to price volatility.

• United States: Agricultural buffers, large domestic production, and existing stock reserves make widespread physical shortages unlikely. However, consumers will likely face sticky, elevated grocery bills and persistent food inflation.